Housing Slump Could Pinch Consumer Spending...

Housing slump could pinch consumer spending, from MSNBC.com, reports that some analysts are voicing concerns that the end of the housing boom could also spell the end of the extended consumer shopping spree because homeowners are not pulling out cash from their homes due to a flattening out of the housing market. "We have seen consumers use their houses at ATM machines," said John Marcell Jr., a mortgage broker in Upland, CA. "Whenever they get their credit card debt up high, they go ahead and refinance and bail themselves out. That's well and good as long as you have a rising market. But when that rising market no longer rises, you have some real issues." Homeowners have tapped more than $250 billion in equity from their homes this year according to the latest forecast from Freddie Mac. The same forecast sees cash-out refinancing falling sharply next year-- to $152 billion-- and to $108 billion by 2008. Many economist see continued job growth and relatively mild inflation as signs that the housing slowdown will not have much significant, harmful economic impact.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15016057/

Northern Parkway Plan Is Coming...

Northern Parkway plan is beginning to emerge, from the Arizona Republic, reports that a new transportation corridor in the West Valley--- the Northern Parkway, is beginning to emerge. The Northern Parkway would connect Grand Avenue to the Loop 303 near Luke AFB and be an alternative to Interstate 10 to the south and the Loop 101 to the north. If the planning goes the way some transportation planners would like, construction could begin in late 2009 or 2010. If the current plan is not accelerated, it could happen in the 2015 to 2020 time frame, as called for in the Maricopa County Regional Transportation Plan. Glendale has taken the lead on the project, along with El Mirage and Peoria. "We need an east-west traffic conduit and the Northern Parkway is probably the best possible alignment," said Peoria Mayor John Keegan. Glendale transportation planners hope to have a initial design concept ready to send to the Arizona Department of Transportation next month. A federal approval by midsummer would go a long way toward moving up the project's start date.

http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/community/peoria/articles/0927gl-parkway27Z2.html

55-Plus Housing Big In SW Valley...

55-plus housing big in SW Valley, from the Arizona Republic, reports that major master-planned communities aimed at "active adults" are expected to bring thousands of new homes and several golf courses to the Southwest Valley over the next decade. At least three communities have opened or are planned in Buckeye alone: Sun Valley South, Sundance and Sun City Festival. In Goodyear, Robson Communities has seen success in the past two decades with its PebbleCreek community. Nearly a quarter of Goodyear's residents are 55 or older, and about a fifth of Buckeye's residents are over 55. "With the baby boomers coming, the numbers are so large that we can't satisfy the needs of people who want to live in age-restricted communities," said Gary Sorrels, sales manager for Sundance. "It is a great part of the market to be in."



http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/community/swvalley/articles/0927swv-seniors27Z5.html

Rising Land Costs Prompt Builders To...

Rising land costs prompt builders to wedge homes into smaller lots, from the Arizona Republic, reports that as land costs continue to rise, builders are looking at smaller lots to build affordable homes for the housing consumer. The average size of a residential lot for a new production home in Maricopa and Pinal counties shrank 1,000 square feet in the past six years, to about 7,400 square feet, according to Hanley Wood Market Intelligence. The closer you get to the Phoenix core, the more likely lots are to be 3,000 or 4,000 square feet. "A lot of new products (lots) are 32 by 100 feet deep," said John Fioamonti, managing director of Hanley Wood. "You can go to Coolidge and Florence and still see the 6,000 to 7,000 square-foot standard lots we are used to. As you get closer into town, you find these vertical podium builds, very narrow two-to three-story almost town homes. They have been doing this in California for years." Some homebuyers don't mind the smaller lots, as they mean less maintenance. Most cities and towns have been approving these small-lot developments to give residents more affordable homes and also to encourage more of a community feel. Look for this trend to continue.





http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0927biz-smallyards0927new.html

Williams Gateway Holds Potential...

Williams Gateway holds potential as job center, from the Arizona Republic, reports that representatives with the Urban Land Institute were in town last week to assess how Williams Gateway can be developed into a private-sector job generator. Their analysis showed that Williams Gateway could be home to 65,000 college students as part of the ASU Polytechnic campus and community college campuses, and be home to up to 100,000 jobs by 2030. Municipalities in the area will spend millions to upgrade infrastructure to accommodate industry along the same lines as what has developed in and near Scottsdale Airpark. Developers are spending millions more buying land in a gamble that more people will move to the area. "That will be our job center," said Mesa Mayor Keno Hawker. According to experts, the Williams Gateway area holds more promise than Scottsdale Airpark, which has reached buildout with nearly 50,000 people working there.



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2 Auctions of State's Trust Land Cancelled...

2 auctions of state's trust land cancelled, from the Arizona Republic, reports that a year ago, builders couldn't buy land fast enough, no matter how much it cost. Now, Valley land has lost some of its luster with home builders, as evidenced by the State Land Department cancelling two auctions of state trust land in Desert Ridge and Fountain Hills because no builders expressed interest in purchasing them at the appraised values. Potential bidders made it clear they can't pay what the properties are currently appraised for because they would have to charge more for houses than buyers were willing to pay. The state is in the process of having the parcels re-appraised and they may go back on the auction block next year. So far this year, home building in metro Phoenix is down 24 percent from last years record pace. Housing analyst RL Brown said that new home permits could fall as low as 38,000 this year, down 40 percent from last year. Last year's investor frenzy prompted builders to stockpile huge parcels for future growth. But this year, many of those speculators walked away from deals as the housing market slowed. "There's a correction going on in the Valley's housing market now, and I don't think these parcels or many others should be auctioned this year," said Nate Nathan, a land broker with Nathan & Associates.



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A Bubble Or a Value???

A bubble Or a Value?, from Motley Fool, reports on the national housing market and the inventory glut facing homebuilders nationally. The article suggests that the glut of inventory homes may not be as large from a historical perspective, citing that the number of homes on the market at the end of July was 568,000, about a 6.5 month supply. That's lower than the 11.6 months supply back in April 1980, or the 9.4 months supply in January 1991. The article says since supply is by no means excessive and the key to what happens next lies with buyer behavior. Personal incomes are rising at the fastest pace in six years, and with falling home prices and still low interest rates, homebuyers still have the ability to purchase. The article summarizes by saying that the housing market still looks pretty sound, notwithstanding this period of softness. With the big discounts builders are offering, now is the time for buyers to make their move and get off the sidelines.





http://www.fool.com/Server/printarticle.aspx?file=/news/commentary/2006/commentary06091903.htm

The Market Typically Tails Off Until The Following March...

Slowing in home resales spreads across the Valley, from the Arizona Republic, reports that across the Valley, there were 5,685 recorded resales in August, only slightly more than July's figure but well below the 10,700 resales in August 2005. Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at ASU, said August signals the last of the robust sales months, because the market typically tails off until the following March. In Glendale, resales fell to 445 in August, down from 855 in August 2005. Peoria had 280 sales, down from 450 a year ago. Surprise had 225 in August, down from 450 a year ago. In Phoenix, sales fell from 3,050 to 1,760, and Scottsdale saw 390 sales, compared with 780 in August 2005.



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'Buy now!' Conventional Wisdom Says...

'Buy now!' Conventional wisdom says the time is right to take advantage of home incentives, from the Phoenix Business Journal, reports that contrary to today's popular wisdom to ride out the current market correction in single-family home sales, some experts say: Buy now. Incentives, from swimming pools to cash offerings of up to $100,000, eventually will come to an end. "Most of the pricing incentives are geared to get closings by the end of the year," said Pat Moroney, president of http://www.bizjournals.com/search/bin/search?q=%22Standard%20Pacific%20Homes%22&t=phoenix Standard Pacific Homes. His company is offering $25,000 to $100,000 off new home sales, depending on the house. "It's a better time to buy now than this same time last year," Moroney said. "A lot of people are waiting to see the bottom of the market and, in my opinion, we're almost there." The home builder said the excess inventory -- mostly spec houses built when sales were booming in late 2004 and through 2005 -- is being absorbed quickly. Another positive development is that the number of resale listings going on the market is falling. For the first half of 2006, the Multiple Listing Service reported new listings of 3,000 to 4,000 per month. In July, however, only 1,300 new homes were added to the MLS, and just a little more than 500 were added in August for a total of 46,028 from January through August of this year. "This is significant in that resale homes on the market appear to be reaching a peak," said Michael Chasse, a home builder specialist with Scottsdale-based http://www.bizjournals.com/search/bin/search?q=%22Land%20Advisors%20Organization%22&t=phoenix Land Advisors Organization. "Hopefully, this trend will continue and we'll reach the tipping point where listings on the market will start coming down to a more reasonable level, which will also establish less sales competition for the new home builders."

http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2006/09/18/story21.html?t=printable

Tiny Home Lots In Demand...

Tiny home lots in demand, from the Arizona Republic, reports that as land cost continue to rise and new homes get more expensive, a new type of urban housing that is more common in California and the East Coast is starting to appear in Chandler and Ahwatukee. The product is a normal sized home on a small lot with virtually no yard and narrow side yards. One example is the two-story, closely spaced homes at Woodside Homes' new Tapestry at Club West development near Liberty and 17th Ave. in Ahwatukee. These new homes on small lots cost less than competing homes on larger lots, and are attractive to people with no children who want less maintenance. In Chandler, the product is being built at Randall Martin Home's Portello at Dobson Crossing, on Queen Creek Road between Arizona Ave. and Alma School Road. "There definitely is a demand for this," said Dennis Herring, vice president of sales and marketing for Randall Martin. "If there wasn't we wouldn't build it. It lets the builder provide a finished home at a lower overall cost." Some of the lots are 32 feet wide by 100 feet deep, and allow for eight to nine homes per-acre.



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$450M Residential Resort - CamelSquare at 44th...

$450M residential resort planned near Camelback and 44th Street, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that Phoenix-based M3 companies plan to redevelop a 17-acre site at the northwest corner of Camelback and 44th Street with a boutique hotel, retail, office and residential uses. The project, called CamelSquare at 44th, would replace the 12-building CamelSquare complex that was built in the 1970's. It will have 950,000 s.f., including three 9-story condominiums. The residential portion will offer a range of luxury housing, from single-family lofts to single-family homes on 14,000 s.f. lots, with prices ranging from $500,000 to $3 million. Developers hope to have city zoning approval in February. The project is expected to take five-years to build out.



http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/index.php?sty=74126

"Wherever the party was the loudest, that's where the hangover is going to be the greatest,"

How low will real estate go?, from MSNBC.com, reports that with the real estate boom over nationwide, economist are now asking how hard the landing will be. The answer depends on who you ask and what location you are talking about. Few, if any, economists are enthusiastic about current market conditions, thanks to a host of bleak figures released by home builders, federal agencies and the National Association of Realtors. "One possibility is that you get a quick return to normal, which is what the economists for the Realtor groups tend to hope for," said Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "But there's nothing in the historical record that suggests we're going to get a return to normal anytime soon. It's a question of whether it is deep and quick or not so deep and much longer." His prediction: "Not so deep and rather long." Lawrence Yun, a senior economist for the NAR, is more optimistic. "Any decline will be very short lived. By the spring of 2007, the market will begin to see increased sales and strengthening in home prices," he said. Areas that were once epicenters of the boom, like Phoenix, San Diego and Las Vegas, will be among the hardest hit, Leamer said. "Regions where a lot of the economic growth came directly from the real estate sector and where that was a huge plus, that's going to turn into a huge negative." "Wherever the party was the loudest, that's where the hangover is going to be the greatest," he added.



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14787588/

NW Valley Cities Say I-17 Link Vital...

NW Valley cities say I-17 link vital, from the Arizona Republic, reports that NW Valley commuters will have another option to connect to I-17 in the next few years with the scheduled Lone Mountain alignment as part of the Loop 303 freeway. Construction is scheduled to begin on the norther stretch of the Loop 303 in 2008, according to ADOT. The first phase, which is scheduled to be done by the end of 2010, will be an interim four-lane divided highway, and the eventual freeway will have five lanes in each direction and be completed in 2015. The loop is needed because up to 300,000 new homes could be built in the area. Good news for the NW Valley as growth follows transportation corridors.



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Park Place Condo Project In Surprise...

Condos near stadium offers buyers sneak peak, from the Arizona Republic, reports that construction is almost complete on the 258-unit Park Place condo project at Grand Ave. and Reems Road in Surprise. The resort-style complex will have walking and jogging trails, a dog park, guest suites, private garages, a clubhouse, concierge service and other amenities. Prices for the Tuscan-style condos start around $200,000 and go up to $285,000. There will be nine floor plans ranging from 846 to 1,645 square feet. Prospective buyers will have a chance to snatch up some of the first units at a presale next week. "This is one of the first resort-style condo communities in Surprise," said Jimmy Foster, president of Blue Tipping Group, the sales and marketing company for the developer, Diversified Real Estate Group. "That's why we're seeing so many buyers show up at our doorstep."

http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/community/westvalley/articles/0909gl-condo09Z20.html

Prices Of Homes Slip Again...

Prices of homes slip again, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Valley homes prices dipped again in August, even falling below last year's levels in some areas. The median sales price fell to $262,500, a drop from July's median price of $264,900. The numbers were released by the Arizona Real Estate Center at ASU. Jim Rounds, a senior economist with Elliott D. Pollack & Co's., said price declines in many parts of metropolitan Phoenix are just beginning and could continue until early 2007. And he said new home price reductions are right around the corner as the housing market's oversupply issue is corrected. Last month, 5,685 existing homes sold in the Valley, up slightly from the 5,545 resales in July, but down from the 10,700 recorded in August 2005. For the first eight months of 2006, there were 47,515 used-home sales Valley-wide, down from 78,935 for the same period in 2005. The article states that the current housing market problems were caused by the investor-buyer frenzy last year. The numbers this year reflect numbers we saw in the more normal 2003 market.

http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0912biz-resales0912.html

Growth Has Surprise In 'Different League'

Growth has Surprise in 'different league', from the Arizona Republic, reports that the city of Surprise now has a population of 100,000, joining the ranks of Phoenix, Scottsdale, Mesa, Glendale, Peoria, Chandler and Gilbert as a Valley city with at least 100,000 residents. Surprise's rapidly growing population bolsters its reputation among major retailers, restaurant chains and companies looking to expand. Surprise's commercial properties were worth about $61 million in 2005, a dramatic increase over the $7 million they were worth in 1996 when the city's population was only 11,395. In the real estate market, Surprise homes have stayed hot while others around the Valley have cooled. The Maricopa County Assessor's Office pegs the median home value in Surprise at $186,000, up from last year's $123,500. What a success story Surprise has become!



http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/community/westvalley/articles/0908gl-nwvpop08Z20.html

Realtors Forecast What Home Builders Know...

Realtors forecast what home builders know: Home sales this year will tumble, from the USA TODAY, reports that the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes were likely to drop 7.6% this year to 6.54 million, a downward revision from their previous forecast of a 6.5% drop. The NAR also said new homes sales are expected to drop 16.1% this year. "This year sales are slowing, homes are plentiful and sellers are negotiating," said NAR chief economist David Lereah. "Under these conditions, we'll probably see price dips temporarily below year-ago levels as the market works through a build-up in housing inventory. This is a normal pattern during a market correction, but home prices should return to positive territory within a few months and annual appreciation will be slower that historic norms," he added.



http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-09-07-homes-forecast_x.htm

Arizona Ranks No. 2 For Job Growth...

Arizona ranks No. 2 for job growth, from the Phoenix Business Journal, reports that Arizona held the No. 2 spot for job growth among states in July behind Nevada, according to the most recent Blue Chip Job Growth Update released Tuesday. Arizona had 2.58 million jobs as of July 2006, up from 2.47 million in July of 2005. That's a 4.75 percent increase, much higher than the national average of 1.3 percent. Arizona ranked No. 1 in two job categories; trade with a 5.37 percent gain and hospitality with a 5.82 percent increase. Good news for our future real estate market-- as long as we have population and job growth our real estate market will be strong.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2006/09/04/daily7.html?t=printable

Surprise Home Prices Keep Rising...

Surprise home prices keep rising, from the Arizona Republic, reports that this years average home price in Surprise was roughly $280,000, according to Realtor Mike Holloway, citing figures from the Arizona Regional MLS. The number is up from 2005, when the median home value was about $245,000. Halloway said he was surprised that home prices have continued to increase, since the number of local home sales declined from 4,154 last year to 1,951 so far this year. "Home prices are quite simply a supply-and-demand issue," he said. "We've had a huge increase in supply, so you would think we'd have a decline in prices in Surprise." Halloway said he believes that the steady Surprise market is a result of a "West Valley buzz" attracting residents to new sporting and cultural attractions like Cardinals Stadium and Heard Museum West.



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Phoenix Top Relocation Destination...

Phoenix top relocation destination, from the Arizona Republic, reports that The Retirement Solutions Foundation, a group run by personal-finance author Jane White, ranked Phoenix number 1 in a new study of best relocation destinations. The report looked at several factors such as local economic strength, employment, housing affordability and attractions that make a city enjoyable. "Affordable real estate attracts workers, especially from obscenely overpriced California," the study says of Phoenix. "The region also has an unusually large number of organizations devoted to helping small businesses." Also, the report noted high rankings for the Valley from Inc. and Entrepreneur magazines and the Milkin Institute.



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Arizona Job Gains Likely To Continue...

Arizona job gains likely to continue, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Arizona will continue to add jobs at a healthy clip through 2007 but not at the fast pace seen in 2005. Arizona economist at the Department of Economic Security see a 4.9 percent job growth rate in 2006 and 4 percent in 2007. That's down from the 5.3 percent job growth rate seen in 2005. The slowdown will be due to the housing market slowdown. But even at 4.9 percent, it will be much higher than the national average. The Department of Economic Security report said that out of Arizona's 11 major industry groups, 10 should grow jobs this year and next. The Arizona Business Conditions Index also rose to 60.5 in August from 54.4 in July. A reading above 50 indicates growth.



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Marley Park Filling Up Fast...

Marley Park filling up fast, from the Arizona Republic, reports that of the 499 homes released so far in the first phase of Marley Park in Surprise, 98 percent have been sold. The 956-acre master-planned community is being developed by DMB Associates, who also built DC Ranch in Scottsdale and Power Ranch in Gilbert, and offers buyers several architectural styles of homes, such as Spanish, Monterey, Craftsman, Bungalow, Cottage and others. Many models feature front porches, in addition to garages that face the side or back of homes.By the end of the year, attached housing will also be available in Marley Park with the 157-unit Frank Residential development featuring lofts, carriage houses and townhomes. Marley Park's theme is diverse neighborhoods with a close community feel. At build-out between 2010 and 2013, Marley Park will contain 3,500 homes.

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Mortgage Rates Down For 6th Week In A Row...

Mortgage rates down for sixth week in a row, from MSNBC.com, reports that rates on 30-year mortgages fell for a sixth straight week, providing homebuyers with more relief from an earlier rise in rates. Freddie Mac said Thursday that 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages dipped to 6.44 percent this week, down from 6.48 percent last week. That's the lowest level since they averaged 6.43 percent in the first week of April. "Mortgage rates continued to drift lower this week in large part because of the cooling in the housing market and in consumer confidence, thus giving financial markets reason to believe that economic growth will moderate and inflation will remain in check," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac. Rates on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages fell to 6.14 percent, down from 6.18 percent, and rates on five-year adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 6.11 percent, down from 6.14 percent last week. Good reason to get your buyers to make an offer this weekend!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/