"Wherever the party was the loudest, that's where the hangover is going to be the greatest,"

How low will real estate go?, from MSNBC.com, reports that with the real estate boom over nationwide, economist are now asking how hard the landing will be. The answer depends on who you ask and what location you are talking about. Few, if any, economists are enthusiastic about current market conditions, thanks to a host of bleak figures released by home builders, federal agencies and the National Association of Realtors. "One possibility is that you get a quick return to normal, which is what the economists for the Realtor groups tend to hope for," said Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "But there's nothing in the historical record that suggests we're going to get a return to normal anytime soon. It's a question of whether it is deep and quick or not so deep and much longer." His prediction: "Not so deep and rather long." Lawrence Yun, a senior economist for the NAR, is more optimistic. "Any decline will be very short lived. By the spring of 2007, the market will begin to see increased sales and strengthening in home prices," he said. Areas that were once epicenters of the boom, like Phoenix, San Diego and Las Vegas, will be among the hardest hit, Leamer said. "Regions where a lot of the economic growth came directly from the real estate sector and where that was a huge plus, that's going to turn into a huge negative." "Wherever the party was the loudest, that's where the hangover is going to be the greatest," he added.



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14787588/