Elliott Pollack's Latest...

Local economist Elliott Pollack's latest report on the housing market. Elliott points out that people forget that housing is cyclical. In 2004 and 2005, there was an explosion of roughly 123,000 single-family permits pulled in the metro area, yet demographics for that same time period supported only 84,000 to 90,000 units were needed. That led to an oversupply of between 15,000 to 25,000 units, and has led to the current "inventory correction". Elliott states that historically based on population inflows, we should be doing 43,000 to 44,000 new homes in the Valley, and that we will need to go through a period of under-production to get rid of the excess inventory. He says that the worse 2007 is in terms of new home permits, the better off we will be and the quicker we will pull out of this oversupply market. Very good article for a true representation of the market.



http://www.elliottpollack.com/word_docs/ASU%20Speech%202006_final%20presented.pdf