Phoenix, One Of The Nation's Strongest Economies...

Housing market could bottom out in six months, survey says, from the Phoenix Business Journal, reports that according to Metrostudy's latest report on our local real estate market, the housing market could bottom out during the next six months. "Cutbacks in new production, aggressive incentives by sellers, the exit of the majority of investors and the fundamental demographic support for housing demand are positive indicators for a housing turnaround in mid-2007," said Mike Inselmann, president of Metrostudy. "The Federal Reserve has ended its series of rate increases, and mortgage rates have dropped notably in the last few months." Phoenix continues to have one of the nation's strongest economies, said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's Arizona division. Even though job growth declined from a peak of more than 100,000 new jobs for the 12 months ending September 30, 2005, the 91,900 jobs posted at the end of September 2006 puts the state at the top of the nation, he said. The Phoenix area posted an annual rate of 54,747 home starts at the end of the third quarter, a decline of 12 percent from the record 62,000 starts recorded at the end of the first quarter of 2006, according to the firm's latest quarterly report.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2006/10/30/daily5.html?t=printable

USA Is Growing Faster Than Any Other Industrialized Nation...

How will the USA cope with unprecedented growth?, from the USA TODAY, reports that the USA is growing faster than any other industrialized nation in the world and is expected to add 100 million more people around 2040. The next 100 million people will create 73 million new jobs, about 70 million new homes and 100 million square feet of non-residential space, according to the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech. The article discusses where all these new residents will live and the growth patterns that will come into play. Urban town centers was one of the growth trends discussed, so that people can work closer to where they live. Redeveloping brownfield sites, promoting infill development, going vertical and increasing rail lines and transit villages were also cited. The article states that the percentage of American households that will want and will get their single-family detached house on a lot will remain high.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2006-10-26-100-million_x.htm?POE=click-refer

Sellers Sing The Blues As Price Drop Sets Record...

Sellers sing the blues as price drop sets record, from the USA TODAY, reports that the median price for a single-family home slipped 2.5% from September last year to $219,800, the sharpest annual drop since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) began tracking data in 1969. At the same time, the volume of home sales fell for the sixth straight month, falling 14% in September compared with a year ago. In the softest markets, sellers are waking up to the harsh reality that they can't get anywhere near what their neighbors sold their homes for last year, so they are grudgingly reducing their asking prices and offering incentives, such as paying closing costs. The article states that builders have become one of the biggest threats to individual sellers, with builders reducing prices and offering eye-catching incentives like free vacations, free landscaping and free media rooms. "It was surprising just how quickly the market seemed to turn," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Economy.com. "It was like, boom, boom, bust. It is like,'What happened?' The psychology in the marketplace unraveled very rapidly."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-10-25-home-price-usat_x.htm

Phoenix Resales Among Lowest...

Phoenix resales among lowest, from the Arizona Republic, reports that while Phoenix is the Valley's biggest city, it has one of the lowest home prices. In the first eight months of 2006, the median price of a home sold in Phoenix was $250,000, according to the Arizona Republic survey of Valley home sales. That's lower than the metro area's overall median price of $256,900. Prices for new and existing homes in Phoenix climbed 11.1 percent for the first eight months of 2006, compared with 35 percent in 2005. Like most parts of the Valley, Phoenix's housing market is returning to normal, like in 2004 when home prices in the city also rose 11 percent. Phoenix has several areas where first time buyers can find more affordable homes, such as south Phoenix, Maryvale and Laveen. In west Phoenix's Maryvale neighborhoods, the median prices are below $200,000, but those Maryvale neighborhoods also had some of the biggest increases in home prices this year, at 30 percent or higher.

Nevada Builder Wants Arizona Town's Water...

Nevada builder wants Arizona town's water, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Wind River Resources, a Nevada Corporation, has filed an application with the Arizona Dept. of Water Resources to pump as much as 14,000 acre-feet annually from an aquifer near Littlefield, AZ to serve the growing population in Mesquite, Nevada. "This falls very squarely into the category of a bad idea," said Kris Mays, a member of the Arizona Corporation Commission, which regulates water companies in rural parts of the state. "Arizona groundwater should stay in Arizona." Jack Riley, a Las Vegas developer, recently bought 2,000-acres in Arizona along Interstate 15 near Littlefield and wants to build a master-planned community, but now is faced with the prospects that a Nevada development could get the water he was counting on. A public hearing is scheduled for late November to go over the proposal to serve Mesquite, Nevada with Arizona water.



http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1024biz-waterfight1024.html

Homes Near...South Scottsdale Are Holding Their Value...

Huge supply of houses keeping prices down, from the Arizona Republic, reports that most Valley neighborhoods saw home values peak in May or June, and that housing prices dipped in more than half of all zip codes in Metro Phoenix in July and August, according to a new study by the Arizona Republic. Homes near central Phoenix, Tempe and South Scottsdale are holding their value or gaining, but in the outlying areas, prices have dipped. "Most people who bought on the fringes last year are likely going to have to hold on for at least three years or sell for a loss," said real estate agent Margie O'Campo de Castillo of Phoenix-based Arizona Dream Realty. The Valley's price dips are a result of supply and demand. There are 45,000 homes on the market across the Valley right now, compared with fewer than 20,000 last October. Housing analysts say when the Valley's supply of homes for sale drops below 35,000, the market will have rebounded or be close to it. The median used-home price fell to $256,900 last month after peaking in June at $267,000. "The Valley's housing market is returning to normal. After last year's inflated home price run-ups, that means many areas will see prices drop," said Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at ASU. "Some areas of the Valley will feel the correction more than others," he added.

Large Cave Creek Development OK'D...

Large Cave Creek development OK'd, from the Arizona Republic, reports that the Cave Creek Town Council approved the final plat for Cahava Springs, a 230-lot community on 945-acres between Spur Cross Ranch Conservation Area and Maricopa County's Cave Creek Regional Park. The development will be Cave Creek's largest. The developer, Mark Sapp, has worked closely with the town over many years to get approval and received praise from the council for following through on all of his commitments. The homes are expected to sell for more than $1 million each. Construction could begin in February.

http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/1018sr-cccouncil1018Z8.html

Prices, Sales Tumble, But That's 'Getting Back To Normal'

Phoenix: Prices, sales tumble, but that's 'getting back to normal', from the USA TODAY, reports that asking prices in the Phoenix area have dropped about 25% this year, says David Khalaj, an agent at Realty Executives. Existing single-family home sales tumbled 34% in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period last year, and condo sales were off 24%. New home permits for single family homes were down 23% through August. The declines appear so dramatic because Phoenix's housing market last year was so hyperinflated. "Last year was just one of those atrocities that happens rarely", in terms of bidding wars and soaring prices, said Camille Sullivan, also an agent at Realty Executives. "I've never seen it before, and I've been doing this for 25 years. It was a very difficult time." Sullivan said the market is "stabilizing and getting back to normal". There area now about 47,000 homes for sale. That's about an eight-month supply, about the national average.



http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-10-16-close-phoenix_x.htm

Completing The Scottsdale Waterfront Residences...

Shift toward downtown living slows, from the Arizona Republic, reports that Geoffrey Edmunds, who is completing the Scottsdale Waterfront Residences, said that the urban living trend will go through a tough period for the next 12 to 18 months. He said that builders would succeed only if they have all the right ingredients for urban condo projects, including great floorplans, interiors and the amenities of a four or five star hotel. "Not all these urban projects are going to be successful," he said. The Scottsdale Waterfront has sold all but five if its 198 condos for an average price of $1.15 million. Residents will start to move into the 13-story buildings in January.

http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/1013sr-biz1013realestateZ8.htm

Sellers Stuck With Real Estate Slowdown...

Sellers stuck with real estate slowdown, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that sellers are feeling the pressure of the slowdown in the resale market as sales of resale homes fell to the lowest level of sales since February 2003. And for the first time in more than 10 years, the year-to-year median home price in the Valley fell, from $263,000 in September 2005 to $256,900 last month. Through September, there were 52,390 existing home sales this year, compared with 88,750 for the same period last year. "A lot of it is the buyers aren't out there," said Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center at ASU. "The days of the big (price) increases are gone, at least for a while, so the buyer is very cautious about what they're going to do. And of course most buyers have to be sellers also, so it creates another problem." "What gets into your mind is, why would I buy now when in fact it may even go lower?", he added



http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/index.php?sty=76295

Scottsdale Reaches Critical Mass For Growth...

Scottsdale reaches critical mass for growth, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that four new Scottsdale projects were previewed at a Scottsdale open house event last week. These projects will cover thousands of acres and cost a couple billion dollars. The projects include One Scottsdale, Silverstone, The Senior Living Community at the Fairmont Scottsdale Princess Resort and the final phase of DC Ranch. These four developments not only add to the residential housing stock, but provide pockets of commercial use instead of strips through the community. "I think if there was any kind of general observation you can make, it's with the growth of residential, you need commercial services," said Robin Meinhart, Scottsdale planning department spokeswoman. "It's basically some of the last vacant parcels in Scottsdale and they were identified to support the residential in the area," she added. The most ambitious project is the One Scottsdale complex, a 120-acre commercial, retail and office space, 400 resort and hotel rooms, and 1,100 residential units that DMB is building. Silverstone is a 60-acre development at the former Rawhide site that will have 976 homes.



http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/index.php?sty=76115

Scottsdale Reaches Critical Mass For Growth...

Scottsdale reaches critical mass for growth, from the East Valley Tribune, reports that four new Scottsdale projects were previewed at a Scottsdale open house event last week. These projects will cover thousands of acres and cost a couple billion dollars. The projects include One Scottsdale, Silverstone, The Senior Living Community at the Fairmont Scottsdale Princess Resort and the final phase of DC Ranch. These four developments not only add to the residential housing stock, but provide pockets of commercial use instead of strips through the community. "I think if there was any kind of general observation you can make, it's with the growth of residential, you need commercial services," said Robin Meinhart, Scottsdale planning department spokeswoman. "It's basically some of the last vacant parcels in Scottsdale and they were identified to support the residential in the area," she added. The most ambitious project is the One Scottsdale complex, a 120-acre commercial, retail and office space, 400 resort and hotel rooms, and 1,100 residential units that DMB is building. Silverstone is a 60-acre development at the former Rawhide site that will have 976 homes.



http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/index.php?sty=76115

Mortgage Rates At Lowest Level In 7 Months...

Mortgage rates at lowest level in seven months, from MSNBC.com, reports that rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to a seven month low this week, at 6.30 percent. Rates have been heading lower for more than two months as financial markets have become convinced that a slowing economy will help ease inflation pressures and that will keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates further. "Home refinancing rose 18 percent last week, accounting for almost half of all mortgage applications," said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac. Rates on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.98 percent. A year ago, 30-year mortgages averaged 5.98 percent and 15-year mortgages averaged 5.54 percent.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7148582/

Valley Housing Prices Forecast To Dip...

Valley housing prices forecast to dip, from the Arizona Republic, reports that according to the Moody's Economy.com report released this week, Valley housing prices will dip 9.3 percent and will not bottom out until the late spring of 2008. Tucson's home prices are expected to fall 13.4 percent, and Prescott will decline 2 percent. All three Arizona markets saw prices peak in the first quarter this year and will hit bottom in the second quarter of 2008. Valley housing analyst RL Brown said the Moody's forecast is too pessimistic about the recovery. "I think it's clear we're going to continue to see an adjustment (down), but my thinking is that by the middle of next year, we ought to be at the bottom or close to it," said Brown, publisher of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter. He added that a 9.3 percent dip in Valley prices is not unrealistic.

http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/1006biz-housing1006.htm

Property Taxes Fall For 81% in Valley...

Property taxes fall for 81% in Valley, from the Arizona Republic, reports that according to the county Treasurer, 756,341 property owners will see lower property taxes this coming year, in spite of the big run up in property values we saw in 2006. 182,373 will see increases in their property taxes. One reason is that the tax bills come 18 months after property tax assessments-- which means the assessments were before the big run up. Second, in fast-growing communities, the cost of city school and special assessment districts is spread out among more taxpayers, which happened here locally. Fountain Hills saw one of the biggest property tax drops at 10 percent. On the other end, Buckeye saw property taxes increase 9 percent and Queen Creek up 8 percent. Don't count on the good news to last as the next assessments will reflect the rise in property values.

http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/clicktrack/print.php?referer=http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0930tax0930.html

More Americans Find Themselves House-Poor...

More Americans find themselves house-poor , from the Arizona Republic , reports that homeowners in every state but Alaska spent more of their incomes on housing costs last year than at the start of the decade, according to data released by the Census Bureau. Nationwide, homeowners spent 20.9 percent of their incomes on housing costs last year, up from 18.7 percent in 1999. Arizonans spent 20.5 percent of their incomes on housing in 2005, up from 19.2 percent in 1999. In 2005, the median monthly housing costs in Arizona were, $1,194, up 16 percent from 1999. "It is now much more difficult for first-time home buyers to get into the market and for existing homeowners to trade up," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "This decline in affordability is the catalyst for the current sharp decline in housing activity."

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/1003biz-housing1003.html

Housing Slowdown Will Take More Than...

Housing slowdown will take more than a year to correct , from the Phoenix Business Journal , reports that according to a new Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast released Monday, the single-family housing market won't turn around in the Western states during 2007. The Blue Chip report said this year's drastic slowdown in the housing market in Phoenix and other major U.S. regions is more of a correction than a collapse , pointing to previous price spikes and "frenzied markets." The Phoenix housing market has slowed considerably the past several quarters, with for-sale homes sitting on the market longer, prices declining and unsold inventories growing. The Western Blue Chip report is spearheaded by the W.P. Carey School of Business at ASU.

http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2006/10/02/daily3.html?t=printable

Vegas and Phoenix Runners-Up...

Florida's job market hottest in nation, Vegas and Phoenix runners-up , from MSNBC.com , reports that Florida is home to five of the nation's 10 hottest labor markets, according to a new Bizjournal study. Cape Coral-Ft. Myers hold the top spot. Las Vegas was number two in the nation, followed by Phoenix. Phoenix added 271,900 jobs since 2002, the biggest gain in raw numbers for any metropolitan area . Bizjournals uses a nine-part formula to analyze the employment situations in the 100 major markets, and the ratings were based on midyear data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15061569/