"The Market Is About Where It Should Be..."

Valley housing market is still good, from the Arizona
Republic, reports that despite competition from a huge number of homes for
sale in the Phoenix area, real estate expert Jay Butler told Tempe leaders
Thursday that prices remain above the national average. "The market is about
where it should be and people don't like to hear that", the director of
Realty Studies at ASU said at the Tempe Chamber of Commerce lunch. The
median price of a home in the Phoenix area use to be about 90 percent of the
National Association of Realtors national median price, he said. Now, with
the run up in home prices, Phoenix's median price sits at about $260,000,
above the national median price of $219,000. Butler notes several problems
facing the market. Buyers can't afford as much because of the higher prices
and because skittish lenders have been tightening their loan guidelines.
Sellers can't or won't lower prices because they owe too much. and buyers
are having problems selling their own homes. "The problem is a lot of people
say this is a buyers market, but most buyers first have to be sellers." he
said.


http://www.azcentral.com/community/tempe/articles/0622tr-butler0623.html
<http://www.azcentral.com/community/tempe/articles/0622tr-butler0623.html>

Fewer Arizona Homeowners Falling Behind...

Fewer Ariz. homeowners falling behind, from the Arizona
Republic, reports that mortgage delinquencies across Arizona dropped to 3
percent at the end of March from 3.51 percent at the end of 2006, according
to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, a sign that the housing
market may be on the rebound. Nationally, the delinquency rate fell to 4.84
percent, from 4.95 percent. "It's one less black cloud over Phoenix's
housing market," said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at ASU. "But it
will take a couple of quarters of lower delinquency rates and inventories of
homes for sale to see if the market is turning," he added. Arizona's
foreclosure rate climbed from 0.76 percent of all loans at the end of 2006
to 0.95 percent of all loans at the end of March. The state's overall rate
is still low compared with the rest of the country, but the recent increase
signals several more thousand people are about to lose their homes. Many of
the current delinquency and foreclosure problems can be traced to the
investor speculation that occurred during the frenzy of 2004 and 2005.



http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0615deliquencies0615.

That's Down 20% From Last Year...

Home sales drop in numbers, price, from the Business
Journal of Phoenix, reports that there were 5,220 homes sold in Maricopa
County in May, about half the number sold in 2005, according to Arizona
State University's Realty Studies Department. Year-to-date, about 24,000
homes have been sold. That's down 20 percent from last year and about half
the number from 2005. The median home price also dropped to $262,000 in May,
down $3,000 from the same time last year. "The general expectation is that
the 2007 resale housing market should be a good year, but nowhere near the
records," said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at ASU. In May, 16
percent of all recorded sales were for homes priced from $125,000 to
$199,999, 42 percent were for homes in the $200,000 to $299,999 range and 39
percent were for homes priced at more than $300,000. Last year, the median
prices trended higher across the board.



http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/06/11/daily26.html?t=pri

2007 Resale Housing Market Should Be A Good Year...

Scottsdale's resale home market declines 21%, from the
Arizona Republic, reports that Scottsdale's resale home market continued its
decline in sales in May with a 21 percent decline from last year, according
to the latest report from Realty Studies at ASU. But median prices rose less
than 1 percent for homes, and 4 percent for condos and townhomes.
Scottsdale's median home price of $617,000 last month was up $2,000 from
last May. Condo prices went up from $261,500 last May to $273,250 last
month, but sales fell 3 percent. Still, Jay Butler, Realty Studies director,
sounded an optimistic note on the overall Valley market. "The general
expectation is that the 2007 resale housing market should be a good year,
but no where near the records," Butler said. Sales dropped Valleywide in May
by 24 percent from last year.



http://www.azcentral.com/community/scottsdale/articles/0612sr-homesales0613-

Once Phoenix Bottoms Out, Price Growth Will Be Strong...

Where housing will bounce back and when, from MSNBC.com,
reports on which real estate markets are projected to bounce back, and how
will their rebound look. The article suggests that there are three types of
recovery patterns-- a "V" shaped recovery where the market experiences a
sharp, fast decline but comes out strong once it hits bottom; a "U" shaped
recovery, where prices decline gradually and recover slowly; and a "L"
shaped curve-- a hard, fast fall with paltry price bounceback following the
market trough. Areas with good local economies and population and job growth
are candidates for a "V" shaped recovery. The article states that Phoenix is
one of those markets. Good affordability rates and a surging job market
suggest that once Phoenix bottoms out, price growth will be strong. Moody's
projection model has Phoenix reaching its price trough in the fourth quarter
of 2008 and then growing by 7.7 percent the following year.

They've Simply Leveled Off...

Housing slowdown causes problems, from the Arizona
Republic, reports that Arizona's lagging housing market likely won't recover
until next year and will continue to hinder job growth until it rebounds.
"Most buyers, I think, now realize that housing prices are not declining,
they've simply leveled off," said Marshall Vest, director of the Economic
and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona's Eller College of
Management. "Houses are still selling, they've just come off of those peaks
that were driven by the mania that ripped the market there for a while,"
added Vest, who gave his midyear economic report on Wednesday to business
leaders in Tucson. Vest's comments were underscored by Dennis Hoffman, a
Valley economist who said the amount of money changing hands in real estate
sales has dropped about 18 percent, to $6.9 billion, from the first quarter
of 2006 to the first quarter of 2007. Hoffman is a professor of economics at
the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. Sales of
existing homes have stabilized and there is about 10 months worth of housing
inventory, Vest said. Normally, inventory is about four to five months'
worth. Sellers are cutting prices to move homes, but that process needs to
continue a while longer before the market can rebuild, he added. "We'll
clearly see a recovery, but it's not going to go as quickly or surely as
high as it did," Vest added.



http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0607biz-vest0607.html

Arizona Poised To Beat National Job Numbers...

Arizona and West poised to beat national job numbers,
from the Business Journal of Phoenix, reports that while the national
economy is expected to remain sluggish through the rest of the year with a
projected 1.3 percent employment gain, projections for the West, including
Arizona, are much stronger. Arizona is expected to see a 3.5 percent gain in
wage and salary employment for the year, behind only Nevada which is
expected to gain 4.3 percent. The information came from the latest Western
Blue Chip Economic Forecast put out by the W.P. Carey School of Business at
ASU. The Blue Chip Forecast also looks at 2008 with Arizona jobs expected to
grow 3.4 percent. As long as we keep gaining population and jobs, our market
will be fine.



http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2007/06/04/daily17.html?t=pri

Down In All States Except Arizona...

Housing prices are flat, but that's definitely a plus,
from the Arizona Republic, reports that California, Nevada, Florida and
Arizona led the nation for housing price jumps a few years ago during the
boom. Now, home prices are down in all the states except Arizona. According
to figures released last week by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight, during the first quarter of 2007, appreciation fell 0.84 percent
in California, 0.34 percent in Florida and 0.52 percent in Nevada. Arizona
showed a 0.13 percent gain for the first quarter. Home prices fell in 22 of
the 26 California cities ranked by the federal agency. In Florida,
appreciation was down in 13 of the 18 cities. Based on the drops in these
other cities, our flat appreciation rate looks pretty good.



http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0603biz-catherine